Sir Keir Starmer is facing the most serious threat to his position since he became Prime Minister, with growing numbers of his own MPs calling on him to set a date for stepping down and hand the keys of Downing Street to a successor. Reports on Monday suggested he was expected to lay out a timetable for his departure before the day was out, as his authority over the Labour Party continued to drain away at speed.
The crisis deepened sharply following the result of a by-election in Makerfield, a constituency made up of former coal-mining towns on the outskirts of Manchester, held on 18 June. That vote had been set up specifically to allow Andy Burnham, the popular Mayor of Greater Manchester, to return to the House of Commons, which under Labour Party rules is a requirement before anyone can stand for the party leadership. Mr Burnham won comfortably, taking nearly 55 per cent of the vote and defeating the anti-immigration party Reform UK by more than 9,000 votes. His victory speech left little doubt about his ambitions. “Everyone knows that politics isn’t working,” he told supporters. “Tonight could, just could, be the turning point.”
Time magazine, which examined the state of British politics and the pressure mounting on Mr Starmer, found a governing party at a crossroads, uncertain whether to fight for its leader or push him out in the hope that a new face could rescue its fortunes ahead of the next general election.
Mr Starmer himself, in the immediate aftermath of the Makerfield result, insisted he would not walk away. He told reporters he would stand in any contest for the Labour leadership and would not give ground without a fight. But within hours, the mood inside government had shifted. Business Secretary Peter Kyle told journalists on Sunday that the Prime Minister was taking time to reflect on where things stood. He used careful language, describing Mr Starmer as considering “the political realities, challenges and opportunities” before him.
Privately, several of the most senior figures in government had already made up their minds. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Energy Minister Ed Miliband were among those who reportedly urged Mr Starmer to announce a departure date. Charlie Falconer, a senior Labour member of the House of Lords, went further in public, telling the BBC that the Prime Minister had “absolutely no authority” left and that an agreed handover process should begin.
If Mr Starmer does go, he will become the sixth Prime Minister to leave office in the past ten years — an extraordinary rate of change that has left Britain’s political standing weakened at home and abroad. He came to power in July 2024 leading Labour to its biggest parliamentary majority in a generation, winning 172 more seats than the Conservatives. But that victory now feels distant. His approval ratings collapsed within months. By early 2026, polling by YouGov put his net favourability rating at minus 57 — a figure matched only by Liz Truss, whose disastrous spell in office lasted just 45 days.
The problems have accumulated from several directions. The government promised economic growth but has struggled to deliver it. Public services remain under severe strain. The cost of living has not eased in the way many voters hoped. A series of missteps compounded the difficulties, not least the appointment of Peter Mandelson, a senior figure from the New Labour era who was later exposed for his connections to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, as Britain’s ambassador to the United States. Mr Starmer dismissed Mr Mandelson, but the damage was done. His Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney, took responsibility for the appointment and resigned in February.
Meanwhile, the party’s political flanks have been picked apart. On the right, Reform UK under Nigel Farage has eaten steadily into Labour’s support among working-class voters in traditional heartlands. On the left, the Green Party has grown sharply, drawing away younger and more progressive supporters frustrated by the government’s approach to welfare, the war in Gaza and its refusal to consider a wealth tax. In the most recent local elections Labour lost control of 35 councils and nearly 1,500 councillors — roughly 60 per cent of the seats it was defending.
All of which has made Mr Burnham’s arrival at Westminster carry an outsized political charge. The 56-year-old, who has twice before run unsuccessfully for the Labour leadership, is at this moment the only prominent figure in the party with positive approval ratings. Supporters have taken to calling him the King of the North, a reference to his decade-long track record of running Greater Manchester and building a reputation for delivering practical results better bus services, improved social housing, more devolved power for the regions rather than simply managing from the centre.
He is not, however, a certainty as Mr Starmer’s replacement. Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who resigned from government in May saying there was “a vacuum where vision should be,” has publicly declared he will stand in any contest. Others mentioned include Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and former Energy Secretary Ed Miliband. The contest, whenever it comes, is expected to be closely fought.
Donald Trump, never one to stay silent when British politics offers an opening, weighed in on Sunday before any formal announcement had been made. In a post on his social network, the United States President wrote that Mr Starmer would resign, having “failed badly” on immigration and energy. He said he wished him well. Mr Starmer’s allies were dismissive, but the intervention underscored how far the Prime Minister’s standing had fallen, from landslide victor two years ago to a figure whose fate was being publicly discussed in Washington.
The coming days will determine whether Britain gets an orderly transition or a contested leadership battle. Either way, the country appears to be preparing itself for a new Prime Minister before the year is out.
