The monsoon is more than just a season in India. It determines when millions of farmers plant their crops, how much food the country produces, and in many cases, how families earn a living. After the driest June in over a decade, those anxieties are beginning to grow.
For many Indian farmers, June is when hope usually arrives with the rain.
Instead, this year brought one of the weakest starts to the monsoon in recent memory, leaving fields dry, delaying planting, and forcing many farming communities to wait for weather that never came.
India has recorded its driest June in 12 years and the fifth-driest June since nationwide rainfall records began in 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The weather agency has also warned that rainfall in July is likely to remain below normal, adding another layer of uncertainty during one of the most important periods of the farming calendar.
“This was the fifth-driest June for India since 1901, and the driest in 12 years,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told the BBC.
The impact is already showing in the fields.
Government figures reveal that farmers had planted summer crops across 18.27 million hectares by the end of June, compared with 23.65 million hectares during the same period last year. That represents a decline of nearly 23%.
Rice, one of India’s most important staple crops, has been hit even harder. Farmers have planted rice on just 2.58 million hectares so far this season, down from 3.44 million hectares a year ago, a drop of about 25%.
The delay comes after the southwest monsoon arrived in the southern state of Kerala three days later than usual. Its movement across parts of western India then slowed for nearly two weeks, preventing many farmers from preparing their land and beginning sowing on time.
Nearly half of India’s farmland depends almost entirely on rainfall. When the monsoon arrives late or brings less rain than expected, millions of livelihoods are immediately placed under pressure.
India’s summer crops include rice, pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane and jute. Together, they rely heavily on the southwest monsoon, which normally delivers around 70% of the country’s annual rainfall.
The consequences stretch beyond farming alone.
Experts say weaker rainfall could reduce domestic oilseed production, forcing India to import more edible oils to meet demand. That could increase costs and place additional pressure on food markets if weather conditions fail to improve in the coming weeks.
Still, there is some room for optimism.
The monsoon season runs until September, meaning farmers still have time to recover part of the delayed planting if rainfall becomes more consistent through July and August.
India also begins this season with a sizeable food buffer.
Official figures show government rice reserves stood at 39.7 million tonnes on 1 July, almost three times the official buffer requirement. Another 29.8 million tonnes of rice is expected to be added after paddy already purchased from farmers is processed.
“We are preparing in advance, not waiting for a crisis,” Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said after reviewing the government’s preparedness for a weak monsoon and possible El Niño conditions.
The minister said authorities have already identified 315 districts that could experience below-normal rainfall and have drawn up contingency plans. These include promoting short-duration crops, encouraging less water-intensive farming and strengthening water conservation efforts.
He also sought to calm growing concerns, saying there was “no need to panic” and insisting that India’s rice and wheat reserves remain strong enough to protect the country’s food supply for now.
Whether that reassurance holds may depend largely on what happens over the next few weeks.
July is traditionally the wettest month of India’s monsoon season and usually accounts for about one-third of the rain the country receives during the four-month period. If the rains recover, much of the delayed planting could still catch up. But if the dry spell continues, millions of farmers may face another difficult season, with the effects reaching far beyond their fields.
