Embattled German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has vowed to remain in office despite exit polls indicating damaging, historic defeats for his centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in two crucial state elections.
The double blow comes just a fortnight after the CDU saw its vote share halved in Saxony-Anhalt, further intensifying pressure on a leader who has already faced mounting scrutiny and rumors of a mid-term “chancellor swap” during his 16 months in office.
In the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the CDU was initially projected to secure its worst-ever election result, only for later figures to show the party dipping below the 5% threshold required to maintain representation in the state parliament. Merz did not mince words, bluntly describing the outcome as “a disaster” for his party.
Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was on track to win the most votes in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with public broadcasters projecting a 38% share. In Berlin, the ruling CDU was similarly outpaced, trailing behind Die Linke (The Left), which secured a historic projected 26% of the vote compared to the CDU’s 20%. The AfD also made gains in the capital, projecting a 16% share.
Despite the grim projections and a muted atmosphere at the CDU’s election night gathering in Berlin, Merz swiftly went on the offensive, dismissing speculation about his departure.
“The reforms have to come,” Merz insisted, addressing reporters at the party headquarters. “I am taking on this responsibility, because I want to move our country forward. What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness and patience. I will demonstrate this as CDU party chairman and, above all, as chancellor of our country.”
Framing his policy agenda as a bulwark against extremism, Merz added that his planned economic, tax, and welfare reforms serve as “the antidote to the authoritarian poison that, with the fascination of authoritarianism, is penetrating ever deeper into our society.”
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Conversely, the AfD celebrated its projected victories as a validation of its platform. “We are the strongest force and have reached the mainstream of the population,” declared AfD national co-leader Alice Weidel. The party’s anti-immigration, German-first, and Russian-friendly agenda has increasingly found fertile ground in the country’s former communist east, despite some of its branches being classified as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence.
While Merz’s approval ratings remain deeply unpopular and his tactical shift to the right has failed to erode AfD support, he has not been entirely abandoned by his ranks. Earlier this week, the leaders of eight German states publicly backed him, arguing that the nation’s problems are inherited and require sustained leadership.
“He has a lot of work to do and we don’t have time to waste to form a new government at the federal level,” said Burkard Dregger, a CDU representative in Berlin, urging the electorate to grant the Chancellor his full four-year term.
As the final results are certified, Merz faces a formidable paradox: he must push through an ambitious reform agenda to prove his governing competence, while simultaneously combating a populist surge that thrives on the very dissatisfaction his government struggles to quell. For now, the Chancellor has drawn a line in the sand, betting that steadfastness in the face of a “disaster” will ultimately be viewed as strength rather than stubbornness.
Promise Idoko is Junior Reporter working with moderncrux He covers global politics and international affairs. Based in Nigeria,
