“You can’t really look at the figures until the war is over.”
Donald Trump says the conflict involving Iran is now creating serious pressure on the American economy, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as inflation fears return to Wall Street. In an exclusive interview inside the Oval Office, Trump connected rising oil prices and global instability directly to the growing uncertainty around inflation and future rate cuts.
The remarks come at a tense moment for financial markets, where investors are already struggling to understand how long borrowing costs may remain high if conflict in the Middle East continues pushing energy prices upward. And for the White House, the situation is becoming more complicated by the week.
Trump said that economic data is becoming difficult to judge properly while the war continues, especially with oil markets reacting sharply to developments around Iran. “You can’t really look at the figures until the war is over,” Trump said during the interview.
Oil prices have climbed significantly in recent weeks as fears grow over instability around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes. The waterway handles a major share of global crude oil exports, and markets have reacted nervously to concerns about supply disruption. Brent crude prices recently crossed above $110 per barrel after the latest escalation involving Iran, increasing pressure on governments already dealing with stubborn inflation and slowing economic growth.
For ordinary Americans, that pressure is already showing up at fuel stations and in transport costs. One market analyst described the situation simply. “Every increase in oil prices eventually reaches consumers. That is what central banks are worried about right now.” For months, investors had expected the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates later this year after inflation showed signs of cooling.
But recent economic data has complicated those expectations. Inflation has started rising again in some sectors, while energy prices continue moving upward because of geopolitical instability. That combination is making Federal Reserve officials more cautious about reducing rates too quickly. Bond markets have already started reacting.
Treasury yields have climbed in recent days as investors adjust expectations around how long rates could remain elevated if inflation pressure continues. One financial strategist described the market mood as increasingly nervous. “The problem is uncertainty. Nobody knows how long the conflict will continue or how far energy prices could rise.”
The Fortune interview also revealed how closely Trump continues to approach economic policy through personal negotiation and dealmaking. Throughout the discussion, Trump described trade, industry investment, tariffs, and global diplomacy almost like interconnected business negotiations rather than separate policy areas. That approach has become one of the defining characteristics of his administration.
During the interview, Trump discussed Intel and expressed regret over the size of a government backed stake tied to earlier support for the semiconductor company. “I should have asked for more,” Trump said, claiming the value of the government linked position had grown dramatically after the company recovered. The comment reflected Trump’s broader tendency to view industrial policy through transactional outcomes and financial leverage.
China also remained central to the discussion. Trump defended his aggressive trade strategy against Beijing and argued that the United States must maintain dominance in artificial intelligence and advanced technology. The administration increasingly sees AI not just as an economic race, but as part of a larger geopolitical competition with China involving chips, infrastructure, military systems, and data control. One White House adviser familiar with current discussions described the atmosphere between Washington and Beijing as highly tense. “Both countries understand the next technological era will shape global power for decades.”
The interview also revealed Trump’s belief that future presidents may struggle to replicate the kind of direct intervention he has pushed across economic and foreign policy matters. At one point, Trump suggested that his style of negotiation and centralized involvement may not continue under future administrations. “It’s not going to happen again,” he said. That statement captured something larger running through the interview. A belief that modern politics, global business, and economic strategy are now deeply connected in ways previous leaders did not fully manage.
Meanwhile, financial markets continue responding to every new development involving Iran. Oil traders, bond investors, and multinational companies are all trying to calculate how long the conflict could affect supply chains, energy costs, and inflation trends. Even small disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have historically triggered major market reactions because of how much global oil moves through the region each day. For central banks, the concern is obvious. Higher energy prices make inflation harder to control. And inflation makes rate cuts harder to justify.
Trump also claimed during the interview that Iran was eager to finalize agreements during negotiations but repeatedly changed positions during discussions. “They’re dying to sign,” he said while criticizing the Iranian leadership’s negotiating approach. Details surrounding those negotiations remain unclear, but the comments reinforced how closely diplomacy and economic concerns are now overlapping inside the administration.
For now, investors remain caught between two competing expectations. The hope that inflation will eventually cool enough for lower interest rates. And the fear that war driven oil prices could keep economic pressure alive much longer than expected. Because in moments like this, global conflict no longer stays far away from financial markets. It reaches fuel stations, interest rates, investment decisions, and household costs almost immediately. And right now, nobody seems fully certain where it ends.
